Clouded Judgement 9.11.20

Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in SaaS valuations, earnings announcements, and highlight any significant news. Follow along to stay up to date!

Earnings Summary

Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples

Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement

Update on Multiples

SaaS businesses are valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue. In the buckets below I consider high growth >30% projected NTM growth, mid growth 15%-30% and low growth <15%

Overall Stats:

  • Overall Median: 14.1x

  • Top 5 Median: 36.3x

  • 3 Month Trailing Average: 13.7x

  • 1 Year Trailing Average: 11.0x

Bucketed by Growth:

  • High Growth Median: 31.9x

  • Mid Growth Median: 15.4x

  • Low Growth Median: 9.0x

Operating Metrics

  • Median NTM growth rate: 18%

  • Median LTM growth rate: 31%

  • Median Gross Margin: 73%

  • Median Operating Margin (15%)

  • Median FCF Margin: 4%

  • Median Net Retention: 116%

  • Median CAC Payback: 32 months


  • Twilio announced that Deloitte Digital has joined the Twilio Build partner program as a premier Global Systems Integrator (GSI)

  • announced that Tom Clayton has joined the company on September 8, 2020 as the company’s first Chief Revenue Officer.

  • AppFolio Announced Sale of MyCase (a wholly-owned subsidiary) to Funds Advised by Apax Partners for approximately $193M in cash. MyCase provides legal practice and case management software solutions

  • RingCentral announced a $600M Convertible Note Offering

Comps Output

Rule of 40 shows LTM growth rate + LTM FCF Margin. FCF calculated as Cash Flow from Operations - Capital Expenditures