Clouded Judgement 9.12.25 - Strong Q2 Earnings
Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Follow along to stay up to date!
Q2 Earnings Season Wraps Up
This week, the last of the cloud software companies reported Q2. Overall, I’d say the data was very positive! You could certainly argue this was the best quarter for cloud software of the last 3 years (ie best quarter since early 2022). Below are a couple charts that show some aggregated stats on the quarter.
Let’s start with net new ARR (both the $ total and YoY growth). The YoY growth in aggregate net new ARR was the highest in the last 5 years.
When we look at the forward guide, the median raise (ie guide for Q3 vs Q3 consensus) was 0.8%. This was the highest since Q1 ‘22, and signals companies are starting to feel more comfortable with the go forward macro.
The below chart shows a bit more detail on how many companies beat the guide for Q3
Even looking at the Q2 data, 98% of companies beat the Q2 estimates (this isn’t an exhaustive list, but a list of ~60 companies that stays the same every quarter). This was also the highest since Q1 ‘22
Overall, I saw a lot of positive trends in Q2. Was this just macro getting better? Companies loosening their purse strings? Is AI revenue tailwinds finally hitting software? I’m not actually sure yet.
Quarterly Reports Summary
Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples
Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement
Update on Multiples
SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against. Even a DCF is riddled with long term assumptions. The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue.
Overall Stats:
Overall Median: 5.0x
Top 5 Median: 23.0x
10Y: 4.0%
Bucketed by Growth. In the buckets below I consider high growth >25% projected NTM growth, mid growth 15%-25% and low growth <15%. I’ve got a few questions recently on the spike in the high growth bucket. The reality is the high growth bucket
High Growth Median: 23.0x
Mid Growth Median: 7.3x
Low Growth Median: 4.2x
EV / NTM Rev / NTM Growth
The below chart shows the EV / NTM revenue multiple divided by NTM consensus growth expectations. So a company trading at 20x NTM revenue that is projected to grow 100% would be trading at 0.2x. The goal of this graph is to show how relatively cheap / expensive each stock is relative to its growth expectations.
EV / NTM FCF
The line chart shows the median of all companies with a FCF multiple >0x and <100x. I created this subset to show companies where FCF is a relevant valuation metric.
Companies with negative NTM FCF are not listed on the chart
Scatter Plot of EV / NTM Rev Multiple vs NTM Rev Growth
How correlated is growth to valuation multiple?
Operating Metrics
Median NTM growth rate: 12%
Median LTM growth rate: 14%
Median Gross Margin: 76%
Median Operating Margin (3%)
Median FCF Margin: 18%
Median Net Retention: 108%
Median CAC Payback: 32 months
Median S&M % Revenue: 37%
Median R&D % Revenue: 24%
Median G&A % Revenue: 16%
Comps Output
Rule of 40 shows rev growth + FCF margin (both LTM and NTM for growth + margins). FCF calculated as Cash Flow from Operations - Capital Expenditures
GM Adjusted Payback is calculated as: (Previous Q S&M) / (Net New ARR in Q x Gross Margin) x 12. It shows the number of months it takes for a SaaS business to pay back its fully burdened CAC on a gross profit basis. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Net new ARR is simply the ARR of the current quarter, minus the ARR of the previous quarter. Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.
Sources used in this post include Bloomberg, Pitchbook and company filings
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