The market is trading a predictable current business for an unpredictable future placing a greater value on what could be than what we know today. My guess is that there will be real disruption that tests every business model leading to new winners and losers.
Penetration of process, security concerns, and reliability are harder than what is assumed.
The good news is that 2026 will be a pivotal year in revealing fact from fiction. We all need to remain flexible, but grounded in reality.
Good overview. Been a long time follower over on X and the originally the blog and now here.
I do think that this is one of better takes on a balanced view of what is happening particularly about the valuation rerating happening today.
I do think that vibe-coding is the catch phrase but it really encompasses more a step-function change rather than folks trying to reach feature-parity.
The attack on SaaS is that it's coming from multiple directions including in-housing and from disruption in the customer's organizations themselves.
I think that the "less seats" and "vibe coded replacements" is a common, but obviously not very informed view. The biggest challenge atm is that orgs that "should've" benefited from AI the most, seem to struggle to convert their obvious distribution and data challenges in a new monopoly.
In the meantime, they've not been able "at all" to jump into new categories, particularly on the dev tool side. The risk is what happens when high growth, very talent dense orgs like Cursor start disrupting poorly managed incumbent leaders like GitHub.
The market is trading a predictable current business for an unpredictable future placing a greater value on what could be than what we know today. My guess is that there will be real disruption that tests every business model leading to new winners and losers.
Penetration of process, security concerns, and reliability are harder than what is assumed.
The good news is that 2026 will be a pivotal year in revealing fact from fiction. We all need to remain flexible, but grounded in reality.
Your TEAM market cap is inaccurate....you are not counting the B shares...why?
Many tools are not including the class B shares
Thank you for including the SBC dilution column. Amazing that we can count on two hands the companies that have SBC <10% of Rev.
Exactly 🙌🏻
Good overview. Been a long time follower over on X and the originally the blog and now here.
I do think that this is one of better takes on a balanced view of what is happening particularly about the valuation rerating happening today.
I do think that vibe-coding is the catch phrase but it really encompasses more a step-function change rather than folks trying to reach feature-parity.
The attack on SaaS is that it's coming from multiple directions including in-housing and from disruption in the customer's organizations themselves.
I narrow it down into two "formulas" of where the biggest changes are: https://csunerd.substack.com/p/two-formulas-to-summarize-every-angle
I think that the "less seats" and "vibe coded replacements" is a common, but obviously not very informed view. The biggest challenge atm is that orgs that "should've" benefited from AI the most, seem to struggle to convert their obvious distribution and data challenges in a new monopoly.
In the meantime, they've not been able "at all" to jump into new categories, particularly on the dev tool side. The risk is what happens when high growth, very talent dense orgs like Cursor start disrupting poorly managed incumbent leaders like GitHub.