Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Follow along to stay up to date! Are Forward Estimates Going Up? Going in to this earnings season I expected a big driver of stock price performance to be how 2024 full year estimates change pre / post earnings. Since the macro feels more “stabilized” it felt fair to assume “are numbers going up or down” to be the question most correlated with stock price performance. After a few software companies have reported we can start to look at the data behind “are numbers going up.” Surprisingly, despite the huge moves in stock price (Palantir / Confluent both +30% and Cloudflare was +20% after hours yesterday), we really haven’t seen forward estimates change that much. The chart below shows how companies’ 2024 guidance compares to consensus estimates prior to the earnings call. Confluent guided 1.4% ahead. Palantir 0.3%. Cloudflare 0.1%. So far, we’re seeing really big moves in stock prices full year estimates probably staying relative constant. Part of this could be conservative guides being called out (Confluent kind of said this about their guide when they said “
Hi Jamin, for your equation inputs, are you using a combination of current info (ie stock price today to calculate Market Cap) and most recent filing (ie Cash, Debt) ?
I'm trying to use your method for some companies you don't cover and want to figure out data sources.
Thanks so much for the info as always! in addition to revenue estimates, could you also start share RPO estimates versus consensus? I'm told that PLTR and NET's big move were driven by RPO, thank you!
I am with you. Jamin, about the need for more visibility into shareholder dilution. But I suspect that even if it is provided by companies, most growth investors will ignore it...to their detriment/loss. I get particularly concerned when a company touts their growing "free cash flow" when in reality the cash on their balance sheet stagnates, their investments back into the business do not change, yet their SBC stays elevated or growing. There is so much to learn from a company's financial statements, yet many investors only look at a few tweets, post-earnings report price action, quarter to quarter growth numbers and lately, how many times "AI" was mentioned in the earnings call.
In fact, it will be interesting for you to add a column to your weekly Top 10 tables showing the count of times "AI" as mentioned in the most recent earnings call.
Thanks for your always informative writings. Cheers!
I AM SO DISAPPOINTED WITH PEOPLE THE CANADAIN GOVERNMENT PLACE IN POSITIONS OF HONESTY, TRUST AND MORALS IN THE COUNTRY I ONCE CONSIDERED MYSELF PROUD TO BE FROM…. They at this moment lost a huge vote of confidence from this
Hi Jamin, for your equation inputs, are you using a combination of current info (ie stock price today to calculate Market Cap) and most recent filing (ie Cash, Debt) ?
I'm trying to use your method for some companies you don't cover and want to figure out data sources.
BTW, your newsletters are AWESOME !!
Thank you
Thanks so much for the info as always! in addition to revenue estimates, could you also start share RPO estimates versus consensus? I'm told that PLTR and NET's big move were driven by RPO, thank you!
I am with you. Jamin, about the need for more visibility into shareholder dilution. But I suspect that even if it is provided by companies, most growth investors will ignore it...to their detriment/loss. I get particularly concerned when a company touts their growing "free cash flow" when in reality the cash on their balance sheet stagnates, their investments back into the business do not change, yet their SBC stays elevated or growing. There is so much to learn from a company's financial statements, yet many investors only look at a few tweets, post-earnings report price action, quarter to quarter growth numbers and lately, how many times "AI" was mentioned in the earnings call.
In fact, it will be interesting for you to add a column to your weekly Top 10 tables showing the count of times "AI" as mentioned in the most recent earnings call.
Thanks for your always informative writings. Cheers!
I AM SO DISAPPOINTED WITH PEOPLE THE CANADAIN GOVERNMENT PLACE IN POSITIONS OF HONESTY, TRUST AND MORALS IN THE COUNTRY I ONCE CONSIDERED MYSELF PROUD TO BE FROM…. They at this moment lost a huge vote of confidence from this