Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Follow along to stay up to date! 2024 Guides - Are they Conservative? So far we’ve got a number of full year 2024 guides. Overall, companies are not guiding above current consensus (median guide is 0.2% below consensus). Is this just companies guiding conservatively, to set up the year for beat and raises? There’s been a lot of dislocation in the world, and after going through the last few years I can see how companies would want to “set a low bar” for the full year.
Interesting - when looking at the graph of EV / NTM revenue multiples vs the 10Y yield, one would think there is room for multiple expansion upwards given current median is below historical average and given the seemingly inverse correlation with the 10Y, one would expect re-rate upwards if in fact the 10Y begins to fall after the fed starts to lower rates. However, the below chart with EV / NTM rev / NTM growth clouds that picture to a degree given the current mult / growth ratio is not only above historical averages, but actually somewhat in-line with the movement of the 10Y.
I find it difficult to trust mgmt teams that play the under promise and over deliver game. I also did not like it when my employees or managers did this in my corporate career. I think it does a disservice to shareholders and comes to bite the stock later on. Give us your best guesstimate as of now and the report the results after three months good or bad and reasons behind the performance. That is the way good mgmt operates. Cheers Jamin!
Interesting - when looking at the graph of EV / NTM revenue multiples vs the 10Y yield, one would think there is room for multiple expansion upwards given current median is below historical average and given the seemingly inverse correlation with the 10Y, one would expect re-rate upwards if in fact the 10Y begins to fall after the fed starts to lower rates. However, the below chart with EV / NTM rev / NTM growth clouds that picture to a degree given the current mult / growth ratio is not only above historical averages, but actually somewhat in-line with the movement of the 10Y.
I find it difficult to trust mgmt teams that play the under promise and over deliver game. I also did not like it when my employees or managers did this in my corporate career. I think it does a disservice to shareholders and comes to bite the stock later on. Give us your best guesstimate as of now and the report the results after three months good or bad and reasons behind the performance. That is the way good mgmt operates. Cheers Jamin!
Great read as always. Thanks Jamin.