Shouldn’t GM adjusted CAC payback be done on new ARR instead of Net New ARR? I’m guessing you’re doing Net New since the ARR break ups are not typically called out in public financials?
Great work as always. The other factor at work here is that we may see sector rotation by institutions out of energy names (if you look at the SPDR sector ETFs, only XLE is positive in the last 12 months!) and into the most beaten-up sectors, which we expect to include high-beta cloud software names. As Jamin notes above, the fundamentals are only improving amongst the best names, and the valuations are attractive on a long run average basis. Disagree? No problem. Your local buyout shop is browsing for bargains right now - expect to see many cloud names disappear into PE ownership in the next 12 months or so. (Disclosure, long many cloud names).
Fantastic post. Appreciate you sharing all this info.
Shouldn’t GM adjusted CAC payback be done on new ARR instead of Net New ARR? I’m guessing you’re doing Net New since the ARR break ups are not typically called out in public financials?
Error again... "Top 5 Median: 31.2x" ... not true :)
Great work as always. The other factor at work here is that we may see sector rotation by institutions out of energy names (if you look at the SPDR sector ETFs, only XLE is positive in the last 12 months!) and into the most beaten-up sectors, which we expect to include high-beta cloud software names. As Jamin notes above, the fundamentals are only improving amongst the best names, and the valuations are attractive on a long run average basis. Disagree? No problem. Your local buyout shop is browsing for bargains right now - expect to see many cloud names disappear into PE ownership in the next 12 months or so. (Disclosure, long many cloud names).
If they disappear into PE ownership, why are you holding them? PE won't pay a premium to delist them and take back to private ownership.
Of course they will. All take-private deals take place at a premium.