Every week I’ll provide updates on the latest trends in cloud software companies. Follow along to stay up to date! Free Cash Flow - How Much Does It Matter? Over the last 6 months we’ve seen a huge shift in what the public markets value. We’ve gone from “growth at all costs” to “show me the FCF.” And more recently it’s become “show me the FCF without adding back SBC!” While I think this sentiment shift is very healthy, I think it’s important to take a step back and remember the evolution cloud / SaaS software has been on the last 10 years.
I have read this blog thread every week for months. You are doing an excellent service to the investment community in providing weekly commentary and making this information easily accessible. Thank you!
Another insightful issue. The only thing I'd add is that I saw the SBC wheeze before; back in 2001-03. Basically, when investors lose money in stocks, they don't like SBC. When they make money, they ignore SBC. And to make this whole issue even twistier, SBC really should be recalculated every quarter because the way the accounting works is that the realized value of the SBC is flat-lined back to the grant date. So if the stock tanks, SBC is lower, and the reverse holds true - the point there is it's a lot more nuanced than GAAP accounting would say. Finally, I really don't think investors would like to go back to the era of Mad Men when there was no equity ownership and pay revolved around high salaries and especially big perks like country clubs, cars, etc. The past wasn't as good as investors remember and there is a reason why you want employee and investor sentiment aligned.
One of the best Jamin posts ever. So much food for thought on where we want to stay invested today and perhaps how we want to find those next DDOGs of the world.
Great note. Other names approaching substantial unlevered pretax FCF generation too. $MDB for one. (Disclosure, long MDB and a bunch of other SaaS stocks).
What is your position on the very high SBC of many of these + FCF companies? Without the SBC, what would they have had to pay these highly technical employees to stay on and what impact to FCF margin would that end up causing?
There really hasn’t been a consistent impact on YTD stock performance based on + FCF compared to those with negative FCF…..so that would argue the transition to “quality” has not yet occurred in earnest. OTOH, many of those + FCF companies do sport a higher valuation as reflected in their higher EV/NTMS so perhaps that argues otherwise.
I have read this blog thread every week for months. You are doing an excellent service to the investment community in providing weekly commentary and making this information easily accessible. Thank you!
Another insightful issue. The only thing I'd add is that I saw the SBC wheeze before; back in 2001-03. Basically, when investors lose money in stocks, they don't like SBC. When they make money, they ignore SBC. And to make this whole issue even twistier, SBC really should be recalculated every quarter because the way the accounting works is that the realized value of the SBC is flat-lined back to the grant date. So if the stock tanks, SBC is lower, and the reverse holds true - the point there is it's a lot more nuanced than GAAP accounting would say. Finally, I really don't think investors would like to go back to the era of Mad Men when there was no equity ownership and pay revolved around high salaries and especially big perks like country clubs, cars, etc. The past wasn't as good as investors remember and there is a reason why you want employee and investor sentiment aligned.
One of the best Jamin posts ever. So much food for thought on where we want to stay invested today and perhaps how we want to find those next DDOGs of the world.
Great note. Other names approaching substantial unlevered pretax FCF generation too. $MDB for one. (Disclosure, long MDB and a bunch of other SaaS stocks).
Outstanding article, great insight and I thank you for your terrific articles weekly. What a true value!
What is your position on the very high SBC of many of these + FCF companies? Without the SBC, what would they have had to pay these highly technical employees to stay on and what impact to FCF margin would that end up causing?
There really hasn’t been a consistent impact on YTD stock performance based on + FCF compared to those with negative FCF…..so that would argue the transition to “quality” has not yet occurred in earnest. OTOH, many of those + FCF companies do sport a higher valuation as reflected in their higher EV/NTMS so perhaps that argues otherwise.