For Q4 2022 and for all of 2023, we, growth investors, need to move away from focusing on quarter to quarter performance.

We need to look at forward estimates all the way to Q4 2023...I am advocating a +/- 5 quarter trend approach for most fundamental metrics that I track.

If we continue to make investing decisions quarter to quarter, then we might as well sell good companies like DDOG and buy recession-resilient companies like MCD or just go to cash. BTW - Nothing wrong with MCD or cash - they are certainly portfolio-worthy holdings. But then we cannot call ourselves growth investors when we are doing this.

Cheers and thanks for a great year of informative posts. Your data and charts are the best!

Expand full comment

Great read as always. One ping is that the reverse time series on the CaC payback / guidance charts was counter intuitive.

Expand full comment

Would you consider adding stock based compensation to your analysis? It seems to have gone from mostly ignored during the high multiple years, to a major red flag for investors since the correction this past year.

Expand full comment